Expert: “Kazakh scenario is unlikely to be repeated in the Caucasus”


Nikolai Silaev, an expert on the Caucasus and regional security, said: “Since the summer of 2020, we have been witnessing a political crisis in Georgia. But this is not at all what we see in Kazakhstan, where mass protests and armed unrest are taking place. I did not expect anything like armed genocide in any of the Transcaucasian countries.
The countries of the region are very different, and the risk of protests is higher in countries with strong character and rapidly growing populations.
There are mechanisms for expressing political discontent in Armenia. They also exist in Georgia, although the country's political system is clearly weak. In this regard, everything is more complicated in Azerbaijan.
There is no progress in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and despite the fact that the parties have all the tools to reduce tension, the situation remains very difficult.
A commission to discuss the border issue has not yet been established. I don't want to make negative predictions because I don't think there is a reason for it."