Digital speculation is still relevant


"Non-oil" or "non-oil" sector?

According to statistics, in the first half of the year, the export of non-oil products increased by 30 percent. On websites and social networks, the question is often asked why the growth is not 70-80 percent, but 30 percent. The question can be considered logical, but there is a subtle nuance. The point is that a 30% increase in non-oil exports does not mean a 30% increase in the share of this sector in exports. Last year, the share of the non-oil sector in the country's exports was only 10 percent, which means an increase of 30 percent, while the share of the non-oil sector in exports increased by only 3 percent. The annual figure is three percent, and for six months this figure is only 1.5 percent, half of which goes to gold, ferrous and other non-ferrous metals, raw cotton, etc., consists of such raw materials and natural resources.
At the same time, the term “oil and non-oil sector” in the classification itself was not chosen by chance (intentionally). In fact, this classification should be characterized as "raw" and "non-raw" industries. Calling the “non-oil” sector, they artificially increase the share of ferrous metals, gold and other natural resources, as well as raw materials such as cotton. According to world practice, export products in this context should be divided into "raw" and "non-raw". Since crude oil with ferrous and non-ferrous metals is not relevant to the report, both are natural resources and raw materials.
Thus, the Azerbaijani government is trying to reduce the share of artificially exported raw materials in exports. International economic and financial organizations want the country's economy to depend not on oil, but on raw materials, which should be reduced by up to 25 percent. This means that the share of raw materials in the formation of both the state budget and Azerbaijan's exports should not exceed 25 percent. However, for obvious reasons, the Azerbaijani government cannot fulfill this requirement. Therefore, the figure is forced to resort to speculation.
It should be noted that at present more than 70 percent of the state budget of Azerbaijan and more than 90 percent of its exports fall on the sale of raw materials.